Baseball playoffs

Cleveland v. New York
Go tribe! I think this is a close matchup. Basically, I see the Tribe as slight favorites in all 3 home games and the Yanks decent sized favorites in their 2 home games. This has more to do with the probable starters than the home field advantage. It will be interesting to see if Cleveland plays Sabathia for game 4. He will be on just 3 days rest, but then for game 5 they will have Carmona on full rest. Seems worth it to me. Carmona and Sabathia (short rest) seems better than Byrd and Sabathia.

Whoops, I was wrong. The Yanks are favored in game 1! So the team with best record, the probable Cy Young, and the home field are dogs. Hmm. I know that the Yanks are probably a bit better but geez louise. I like the Tribe +150 for the series and +105 for game 1. Apparently, the Tribe is even bigger series odds dogs at other places!

Boston V. Los Angeles California Anaheim Angels
I certainly like Boston here. However, Anaheim has one thing going for them. They have Lackey and Escobar for 4 out of the 5 games on full rest. I see some value at +160.

I am rooting for the Angels and Indians. I could not stand to watch a Sox-Yanks matchup. I would not want to watch any of the games. Hell, I probably would not even bear to watch Sportscenter for a couple weeks. I just don't care about those two teams. I am sick of them. Sick of their payrolls. Sick of the fans. Sick of the sportswriters covering them so much. Sick of every single one of their 2670269822 matchups every year being on national TV.

Monday night party in the Nati!

A few plays for tonight
Cincinnati +7.5 (-105). The pub has moved this a point or half point this week. Thank you. I feel a true line should be 5 or 6. This is still an overreaction to Cincy defense performance against Cleveland and New England's hot start. Teams that start 3-0 are abyssmal ATS on the road in week 4. I also like u54 (-110). This is way too high, the public has moved it a couple points for me, etc. Also, Brady +110 and +120 u2.5TD passes. So Brady is going to throw over 40 TD passes this year huh?

Weekend recap and baseball thoughts coming later.

Happy Week 4

Split the other two college plays this weekend at -105. Had SDst and USF.

For Week 4, tons of great teaser using Atl, NYG, Min, and SF in all possible combos at -110, +180, and +300. Could be ugly or great.

Some fun props.
B. Jackson -140 will not score a TD. He has to play though.
McGahee no TD -150 but for just the FIRST HALF. Go Browns!
Gates u6.5 catches.
Houston -2.5 made at beginning of week because I thought I could middle. Oops.
KC +11.5
James -115 no TD.
R. Brown no TD E.

I go for some donkey action tonight

How about that lovable public. Thank you all who pushed the Monday night game from 44.5 to 46. Vince Young has become my favorite player in the league. I typically find the most exciting players in football to be good quarterbacks that can run. In college, my favorite player has been Tim Tebow. I have never seen play action pass with the quarterback! Its hilarious.

Anyways, I am donking it up tonight by calling for a parlay: So. Miss (+11) u51. The public has pushed both of these in my favor. There are other things I like about too, but am not the mood to babble. In addition, I feel there is some amount of correlation so there you go. 1u to win 2.6u.

Also, I like USF (+7) (-105). I may get a good middle here because a lot sharp betters like this ber including perhaps this guy who often pushes lines.

Are you ready for some football?

Its Monday night and I am kinda looking foward to watching some of this game. One play for it is Brees u1.5 TD passes (+110). Last year Brees was awesome. During that great season combined with the first two games of this year he has averaged 1.5 TD passes per game. Crunching some numbers, it comes out to about a 55% chance he will throw 1 or 0 TDs in a game. Certainly, the team he is playing against could influence this stat. However, I do not feel Tennessee is bad or good enough to have much effect. I am also throwing in the under 46. This is not a great bet, but I still like it. The line openned at 44.5 and moved up. The public is still on the over. Plus, I think the original was just fine so this is a marginal play at -110.

Yesterday wasn't bad. I am thankful for teasers!

28.05u's wagered for +8.81u and a wonderfully unsustainable 31% ROI!

Week 3 fun

First, some good prop bets week 3
These receivers I think are great plays for under 6 catches this week.
Walker, C. Johnson, Driver, and Shockey(4.5)
6 catches a game is 96 in a season. Odds are against any receiver having that many for a season. Probability says these are good plays.

Team plays
Chicago -3
So Dallas and Chicago are equal teams huh? I don't think so. It seems that Dallas is overrated. The Bears are right around that same solid team that represented the JV in the Super Bowl last year. Plus, the public likes Dallas.

Green Bay +5.5
I think this is off by about 2-2.5 points. Call it the Norv Turner effect. I see a tight, low scoring game here. I love the home dog!

Cincinnati +3 (+105)
Last week Cincinnati was overrated. They give up 51 to the Browns and now they are underrated. I love sports. When a slightly above average varsity team goes against a slightly above average JV team then the spread should reflect it. This spread does not.

Baltimore -7.5 (-110)
They were 10 point favs to the Jets last week and now they are 7.5 to Zona? Aren't the Jets better than Zona? I think this is off by a field goal.

Atlanta +4 (-110)
Pure against the public pick.

Teasing Pitt Balt and Minny in all combos.

Finally, the best play of the week is Winslow(-150) to not score a TD.

Go Browns!

Fading the pub college style

I do not know a whole lot about college football. I like it enough and it does take over much of my TV watching on a typical Saturday. I am calling out one good play this weekend

Miss +23 (-105) 1.05u

This line openned at 20 and the public has pushed it a field goal. They are still all over it. So I'll fade the pub.

I also like Mich and ND this weekend.

More tomorrow for Week 3!