Happy Week 4

Split the other two college plays this weekend at -105. Had SDst and USF.

For Week 4, tons of great teaser using Atl, NYG, Min, and SF in all possible combos at -110, +180, and +300. Could be ugly or great.

Some fun props.
B. Jackson -140 will not score a TD. He has to play though.
McGahee no TD -150 but for just the FIRST HALF. Go Browns!
Gates u6.5 catches.
Houston -2.5 made at beginning of week because I thought I could middle. Oops.
KC +11.5
James -115 no TD.
R. Brown no TD E.

I go for some donkey action tonight

How about that lovable public. Thank you all who pushed the Monday night game from 44.5 to 46. Vince Young has become my favorite player in the league. I typically find the most exciting players in football to be good quarterbacks that can run. In college, my favorite player has been Tim Tebow. I have never seen play action pass with the quarterback! Its hilarious.

Anyways, I am donking it up tonight by calling for a parlay: So. Miss (+11) u51. The public has pushed both of these in my favor. There are other things I like about too, but am not the mood to babble. In addition, I feel there is some amount of correlation so there you go. 1u to win 2.6u.

Also, I like USF (+7) (-105). I may get a good middle here because a lot sharp betters like this ber including perhaps this guy who often pushes lines.

Are you ready for some football?

Its Monday night and I am kinda looking foward to watching some of this game. One play for it is Brees u1.5 TD passes (+110). Last year Brees was awesome. During that great season combined with the first two games of this year he has averaged 1.5 TD passes per game. Crunching some numbers, it comes out to about a 55% chance he will throw 1 or 0 TDs in a game. Certainly, the team he is playing against could influence this stat. However, I do not feel Tennessee is bad or good enough to have much effect. I am also throwing in the under 46. This is not a great bet, but I still like it. The line openned at 44.5 and moved up. The public is still on the over. Plus, I think the original was just fine so this is a marginal play at -110.

Yesterday wasn't bad. I am thankful for teasers!

28.05u's wagered for +8.81u and a wonderfully unsustainable 31% ROI!

Week 3 fun

First, some good prop bets week 3
These receivers I think are great plays for under 6 catches this week.
Walker, C. Johnson, Driver, and Shockey(4.5)
6 catches a game is 96 in a season. Odds are against any receiver having that many for a season. Probability says these are good plays.

Team plays
Chicago -3
So Dallas and Chicago are equal teams huh? I don't think so. It seems that Dallas is overrated. The Bears are right around that same solid team that represented the JV in the Super Bowl last year. Plus, the public likes Dallas.

Green Bay +5.5
I think this is off by about 2-2.5 points. Call it the Norv Turner effect. I see a tight, low scoring game here. I love the home dog!

Cincinnati +3 (+105)
Last week Cincinnati was overrated. They give up 51 to the Browns and now they are underrated. I love sports. When a slightly above average varsity team goes against a slightly above average JV team then the spread should reflect it. This spread does not.

Baltimore -7.5 (-110)
They were 10 point favs to the Jets last week and now they are 7.5 to Zona? Aren't the Jets better than Zona? I think this is off by a field goal.

Atlanta +4 (-110)
Pure against the public pick.

Teasing Pitt Balt and Minny in all combos.

Finally, the best play of the week is Winslow(-150) to not score a TD.

Go Browns!

Fading the pub college style

I do not know a whole lot about college football. I like it enough and it does take over much of my TV watching on a typical Saturday. I am calling out one good play this weekend

Miss +23 (-105) 1.05u

This line openned at 20 and the public has pushed it a field goal. They are still all over it. So I'll fade the pub.

I also like Mich and ND this weekend.

More tomorrow for Week 3!

Couple Monday evening plays

"One who knows" likes the Astros +136 tonight and I found them at 140 so I took it. It is late in the baseball season so any plays are coattailing it. Maybe by next year I will have my own system set up for baseball.

Also, Westbrook u5.5 catches is a nice play. He averaged 4.8 per game last year. Its 1.2u for 1u.

*Edit* I messed up the Westbrook thing. He only played 13 games last year. The over is actually the +EV play 1.15u to win 1u. Throw in Randle El u3.5 1u to win 1.05u.

I jumped on a tease early because I like the lines I got. Pittsburgh (-8.5) and Minny (+2.5) on a 6 pointer. 1.1u to win 1u.

Weekend Recap

Well I added two more good odds before the games. Winslow o4.5 cataches (+105) and Roy Williams o4.5 (-115). Each averaged around 5.4 catches a game last year. I did not see any reason those averages wouldn't be good guesses for the opponents they were going against. Both covered and both were pretty high EV if you use the proper counting probability.

By the way, I feel double negatives make for incredible writing.

So for the weekend I went 7-1 for +6.01u. Cool start for the blog.

Go Browns!

I am unfortunately a big Browns fan.

Anyway, I will add them to the good bets. Browns +7 1.05u to win 1u. This is only because I am going against the public which can be a very strong play. Also, this line was 3.5 before the week one games. It should probably still be around there.

Here we go

This blog is going to be many things, I think. The main reason I started it was to create a sports betting blog. Now, sports betting is something that has always intrigued me. I am going to start tracking possible bets and seeing how they do.

I am starting with the NFL. This weekend I see a few good plays.

First the straight up spread bets.

Tampa Bay +3 (+115) against New Orleans 1u

At first, if I had to bet on this game I would take New Orleans. I thought the spread was fair. However, the ever intelligent public that beats bookmakers to a pulp year after year have pushed this line. Now you getting nice odds on the Bucs. Plus, I love home dogs. Over, a 16 year span they won 51% of the time. I know that doesn't mean that much, but going against the public can't be that bad.

Miami +3.5 (-105) over Dallas 1.05u

Dallas is not that good. This is another line that the public loves Dallas on, so I like Miami. Pushing that line up a half a point makes this a play considering 10% of all NFL games end in a 3 point victory.

2 teasers (-110) 1.1u

Indy -7.5 and Zona +2.5 teased 6 points. This is a typical cover the valued 7 and 3 point victories tease. I am a little nervous on it because I am beginning to believe that the Indy spread may be a half point to high.

Green Bay +1.5 and Zona +2.5 teased 6 points.

2 parlays each 1u to win .86u (just one needs to win as there is a half on each)

Kansas City +12 and u34.5

Chicago -12 and o34.5

Anytime the biggest spread is combined with the smallest over/under this can not be a bad play. The reason is that KC covering with over and Chicago covering with under are just not very likely.

My other lean is the Browns at 7. The public is going nuts on the Bengals and I am waiting to see if it gets to 7.5 which has to make a good play. Hell, the spread on this was 3.5 just 10 days ago! Did week 1 really mean that much?