This blog is going to be many things, I think. The main reason I started it was to create a sports betting blog. Now, sports betting is something that has always intrigued me. I am going to start tracking possible bets and seeing how they do.
I am starting with the NFL. This weekend I see a few good plays.
First the straight up spread bets.
Tampa Bay +3 (+115) against New Orleans 1u
At first, if I had to bet on this game I would take New Orleans. I thought the spread was fair. However, the ever intelligent public that beats bookmakers to a pulp year after year have pushed this line. Now you getting nice odds on the Bucs. Plus, I love home dogs. Over, a 16 year span they won 51% of the time. I know that doesn't mean that much, but going against the public can't be that bad.
Miami +3.5 (-105) over Dallas 1.05u
Dallas is not that good. This is another line that the public loves Dallas on, so I like Miami. Pushing that line up a half a point makes this a play considering 10% of all NFL games end in a 3 point victory.
2 teasers (-110) 1.1u
Indy -7.5 and Zona +2.5 teased 6 points. This is a typical cover the valued 7 and 3 point victories tease. I am a little nervous on it because I am beginning to believe that the Indy spread may be a half point to high.
Green Bay +1.5 and Zona +2.5 teased 6 points.
2 parlays each 1u to win .86u (just one needs to win as there is a half on each)
Kansas City +12 and u34.5
Chicago -12 and o34.5
Anytime the biggest spread is combined with the smallest over/under this can not be a bad play. The reason is that KC covering with over and Chicago covering with under are just not very likely.
My other lean is the Browns at 7. The public is going nuts on the Bengals and I am waiting to see if it gets to 7.5 which has to make a good play. Hell, the spread on this was 3.5 just 10 days ago! Did week 1 really mean that much?
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